St. Louis Industrial Real Estate Market Report | Q4 2025

Flip Through the Full Q4 2025 Industrial Market Report

St. Louis Industrial Real Estate Market Report — Q4 2025

Vacancy Reaches 5.4% as Tenant Right-Sizing Drives Market Recalibration
The St. Louis industrial real estate market closed Q4 2025 with 311.4 million square feet of total inventory and an overall vacancy rate of 5.4%. While vacancy has increased from earlier in the year, the shift reflects tenant consolidation and footprint optimization rather than a collapse in demand.

Net absorption totaled negative 2.0 million square feet in Q4, bringing year-to-date net absorption to negative 2.7 million square feet. However, gross absorption remained strong at 2.2 million square feet for the quarter and 7.5 million square feet for the year — reinforcing that leasing activity continues, even as occupiers right-size space.

Rent Stability Signals Market Discipline
Despite vacancy expansion, average direct NNN asking rents held steady at $6.22 per square foot.

After a period of rapid rent acceleration in 2023 and early 2024, the market has shifted into a stabilization phase. Landlords are prioritizing occupancy and deal structure over aggressive rate growth, but pricing remains well above pre-2023 levels.

Replacement costs, disciplined new construction and strong regional logistics positioning continue to support rent resilience.

Submarket Performance Is Diverging
Performance varies meaningfully across the region.

Chesterfield / Hwy 40 emerged as the strongest-performing submarket, posting approximately 456,000 square feet of positive net absorption, vacancy near 2.5%, and some of the highest asking rents in the market at $10.61 per square foot. Modern inventory and strong tenant demand continue to drive outperformance.

South County (1.2% vacancy) and Jefferson County (2.0% vacancy) remain among the tightest submarkets.

At the other end of the spectrum, North County (12.4% vacancy) and Metro East (7.4% vacancy) continue to face elevated vacancy and negative absorption, driven largely by older, functionally obsolete product and tenant consolidation.

Location, building quality and functionality are defining performance more than ever.

Leasing Activity Remains Active
Large transactions continue to move the market, including:

Unilever – 513,441 SF renewal (Metro East)
Geodis – 397,751 SF renewal (Metro East)
True Fitness – 254,458 SF new lease (St. Charles County)
AIT Worldwide Logistics – 228,255 SF new lease (Earth City)
These deals reinforce that companies remain active in the market — particularly for well-located, modern industrial product.

Construction Pipeline Moderates
Approximately 433,500 square feet delivered in Q4, with 4.3 million square feet currently under construction.

Development activity remains disciplined compared to prior cycle peaks. Much of the pipeline is build-to-suit rather than speculative, including major projects for Boeing, Amazon and Whirlpool.

This moderation in new supply should help stabilize vacancy as the market moves through 2026.

2026 Outlook: Stabilization Ahead
Key themes heading into 2026:

Development activity is moderating
Tenant right-sizing drove 2025 softness
Leasing activity remains healthy
Modern assets continue to outperform
Conditions point toward gradual stabilization
The St. Louis industrial market is not retreating — it is recalibrating.

Owners, investors and occupiers who understand submarket dynamics and building functionality will be best positioned in the year ahead.

View the Full Q4 2025 Market Report (Interactive Flipbook)

If you would like a detailed breakdown of your property type or submarket, the team at NAI DESCO is available to provide customized insight based on current leasing activity, comparable transactions and pipeline developments.